BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is one of the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses a multi-agent model to investigate the impact of four types of contact tracing strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: In order to analyse individual contact tracing in a reasonably realistic setup, we construct an agent-based model of a small municipality with about 60.000 inhabitants (nodes) and about 2.8 million social contacts (edges) in 30 different layers. Those layers reflect demographic, geographic, sociological and other patterns of the TTWA (Travel-to-work-area) Hodonín in Czechia. Various data sources such as census, land register, transport data or data reflecting the shopping behaviour, were employed to meet this purpose. On this multi-graph structure we run a modified SEIR model of the COVID-19 dynamics. The parameters of the model are calibrated on data from the outbreak in the Czech Republic in the period March to June 2020. The simplest type of contact tracing follows just the family, the second tracing version tracks the family and all the work contacts, the third type finds all contacts with the family, work contacts and friends (leisure activities). The last one is a complete (digital) tracing capable of recalling any and all contacts. We evaluate the performance of these contact tracing strategies in four different environments. First, we consider an environment without any contact restrictions (benchmark); second with strict contact restriction (replicating the stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions employed in Czechia in the spring 2020); third environment, where the measures were substantially relaxed, and, finally an environment with weak contact restrictions and superspreader events (replicating the situation in Czechia in the summer 2020). FINDINGS: There are four main findings in our paper. 1. In general, local closures are more effective than any type of tracing. 2. In an environment with strict contact restrictions there are only small differences among the four contact tracing strategies. 3. In an environment with relaxed contact restrictions the effectiveness of the tracing strategies differs substantially. 4. In the presence of superspreader events only complete contact tracing can stop the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: In situations, where many other non-pharmaceutical interventions are in place, the specific extent of contact tracing may not have a large influence on their effectiveness. In a more relaxed setting with few contact restrictions and larger events the effectiveness of contact tracing depends heavily on their extent.
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemický výskyt choroby prevence a kontrola MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- pandemie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- SARS-CoV-2 MeSH
- trasování kontaktů MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Studies demonstrating the waning of post-vaccination and post-infection immunity against covid-19 generally analyzed a limited range of vaccines or subsets of populations. Using Czech national health data from the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic till November 20, 2021 we estimated the risks of reinfection, breakthrough infection, hospitalization and death by a Cox regression adjusted for sex, age, vaccine type and vaccination status. Vaccine effectiveness against infection declined from 87% at 0-2 months after the second dose to 53% at 7-8 months for BNT162b2 vaccine, from 90% at 0-2 months to 65% at 7-8 months for mRNA-1273, and from 83% at 0-2 months to 55% at 5-6 months for the ChAdOx1-S. Effectiveness against hospitalization and deaths declined by about 15% and 10%, respectively, during the first 6-8 months. Boosters (third dose) returned the protection to the levels observed shortly after dose 2. In unvaccinated, previously infected individuals the protection against infection declined from 97% after 2 months to 72% at 18 months. Our results confirm the waning of vaccination-induced immunity against infection and a smaller decline in the protection against hospitalization and death. Boosting restores the original vaccine effectiveness. Post-infection immunity also decreases over time.
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * prevence a kontrola MeSH
- hospitalizace MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- pandemie MeSH
- vakcína BNT162 MeSH
- vakcinace MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.
- MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- COVID-19 * epidemiologie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- kontrola infekčních nemocí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- masky * MeSH
- matematické pojmy MeSH
- pandemie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- SARS-CoV-2 MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- školy MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemiologické modely MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- teoretické modely MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy.
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * epidemiologie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- SARS-CoV-2 MeSH
- vakcinace MeSH
- vakcíny proti COVID-19 MeSH
- vakcíny * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evades immunity conferred by vaccines and previous infections. METHODS: We used a Cox proportional hazards model and a logistic regression on individual-level population-wide data from the Czech Republic to estimate risks of infection and hospitalization, including severe states. RESULTS: A recent (≤2 months) full vaccination reached vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42%-44%) against infection by Omicron compared to 73% (95% CI, 72%-74%) against Delta. A recent booster increased VE to 56% (95% CI, 55%-56%) against Omicron infection compared to 90% (95% CI, 90%-91%) for Delta. The VE against Omicron hospitalization of a recent full vaccination was 45% (95% 95% CI, 29%-57%), with a recent booster 87% (95% CI, 84%-88%). The VE against the need for oxygen therapy due to Omicron was 57% (95% CI, 32%-72%) for recent vaccination, 90% (95% CI, 87%-92%) for a recent booster. Postinfection protection against Omicron hospitalization declined from 68% (95% CI, 68%-69%) at ≤6 months to 13% (95% CI, 11%-14%) at >6 months after a previous infection. The odds ratios for Omicron relative to Delta were 0.36 (95% CI, .34-.38) for hospitalization, 0.24 (95% CI, .22-.26) for oxygen, and 0.24 (95% CI, .21-.28) for intensive care unit admission. CONCLUSIONS: Recent vaccination still brings substantial protection against severe outcome for Omicron.
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * prevence a kontrola MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- SARS-CoV-2 MeSH
- vakcinace MeSH
- vakcíny * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
The search for mates is often accompanied with conspicuous behaviour or morphology that can be exploited by predators. Here we explore the evolutionary consequences of a trade-off that arises naturally between mate acquisition and risk of predation and study evolution of the rate at which male prey search for mates in a population subject to a mate-finding Allee effect and exposed to either generalist or specialist predators. Since we show that the mate search rate determines the strength of the mate-finding Allee effect, we can alternatively view this as evolution of the mate-finding Allee effect in prey. We contrast two different life histories and find that, predominantly, male prey either evolve towards the maximal mate search rate yielding the weakest possible mate-finding Allee effect (thus showing no adaptive response in mating behaviour to predation risk) or evolutionary bi-stability occurs. In the latter case, males evolve a relatively low mate search rate (hence a relatively strong mate-finding Allee effect, interpreted as an adaptive response of male prey to predation) when initially slow or the maximal mate search rate when initially fast. Disruptive selection does not occur in populations exposed to generalist predators but is possible when predators are specialists. The dimorphic phase, in which fast and conspicuous male prey coexist with slow and cryptic ones, is however but a transient in evolutionary dynamics as one branch goes extinct while the other evolves towards the maximal mate search rate.
- MeSH
- algoritmy MeSH
- biologická evoluce * MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- kompetitivní chování fyziologie MeSH
- predátorské chování fyziologie MeSH
- rozmnožování fyziologie MeSH
- sexuální chování zvířat fyziologie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
Allee effects have important implications for many aspects of basic and applied ecology. The benefits of aggregation of conspecific individuals are central to Allee effects, which have led to the widely held assumption that social species are more prone to Allee effects. Robust evidence for this assumption, however, remains rare. Furthermore, previous research on Allee effects has failed to adequately address the consequences of the different levels of organisation within social species' populations. Here, we review available evidence of Allee effects and model the role of demographic and behavioural factors that may combine to dampen or strengthen Allee effects in social species. We use examples across various species with contrasting social structure, including carnivores, bats, primates and eusocial insects. Building on this, we provide a conceptual framework that allows for the integration of different Allee effects in social species. Social species are characterised by nested levels of organisation. The benefits of cooperation, measured by mean individual fitness, can be observed at both the population and group levels, giving rise to "population level" and "group level" Allee effects respectively. We also speculate on the possibility of a third level, reporting per capita benefits for different individuals within a group (e.g. castes in social insects). We show that group size heterogeneity and intergroup interactions affect the strength of population-level demographic Allee effects. Populations with higher group size heterogeneity and in which individual social groups cooperate demonstrate the weakest Allee effects and may thus provide an explanation for why extinctions due to Allee effects are rare in social species. More adequately accounting for Allee effects in social species will improve our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary implications of cooperation in social species.
- MeSH
- biologická evoluce MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- genetická zdatnost * MeSH
- hmyz fyziologie MeSH
- hustota populace MeSH
- savci fyziologie MeSH
- sociální chování MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- přehledy MeSH
Since aging seems omnipresent, many authors regard it as an inevitable consequence of the laws of physics. However, recent research has conclusively shown that some organisms do not age, or at least do not age on a scale comparable with other aging organisms. This begets the question why aging evolved in some organisms yet not in others. Here we present a simulation model of competition between aging and non-aging individuals in a sexually reproducing population. We find that the aging individuals may outcompete the non-aging ones if they have a sufficiently but not excessively higher initial fecundity or if individuals mate assortatively with respect to their own phenotype. Furthermore, the aging phenotype outcompetes the non-aging one or resists dominance of the latter for a longer period in populations composed of genuine males and females compared to populations of simultaneous hermaphrodites. Finally, whereas sterilizing parasites promote non-aging, the effect of mortality-enhancing parasites is to enable longer persistence of the aging phenotype relative to when parasites are absent. Since the aging individuals replace the non-aging ones in diverse scenarios commonly found in nature, our study provides important insights into why aging has evolved in most, but not all organisms.
- MeSH
- biologická evoluce * MeSH
- fenotyp MeSH
- fertilita genetika fyziologie MeSH
- pohlavní dimorfismus MeSH
- populační genetika MeSH
- rozmnožování genetika MeSH
- sexuální výběr u zvířat fyziologie MeSH
- stárnutí genetika fyziologie MeSH
- teoretické modely MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
