demographic modelling Dotaz Zobrazit nápovědu
84 s. : il. ; 32 cm
- Konspekt
- Hygiena. Lidské zdraví
- NLK Obory
- sexuologie
- demografie
On the basis of new examination of ancient DNA and craniometric analyses, Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe has been recently explained as reflecting colonization or at least a major influx of near eastern farmers. Given the fact that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe was very rapid and extended into a large area, colonization would have to be associated with high population growth and fertility rates of an expanding Neolithic population. We built three demographic models to test whether the growth and fertility rates of Neolithic farmers were high enough to allow them to colonize Central Europe without admixture with foragers. The principle of the models is based on stochastic population projections. Our results demonstrate that colonization is an unlikely explanation for the Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe, as the majority of fertility and growth rate estimates obtained in all three models are higher than levels expected in the early Neolithic population. On the basis of our models, we derived that colonization would be possible only if (1) more than 37% of women survived to mean age at childbearing, (2) Neolithic expansion in Central Europe lasted more than 150 years, and (3) the population of farmers grew in the entire settled area. These settings, however, represent very favorable demographic conditions that seem unlikely given current archaeological and demographic evidence. Therefore, our results support the view that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe involved admixture of expanding farmers with local foragers. We estimate that the admixture contribution from foragers may have been between 55% and 72%.
- MeSH
- analýza přežití MeSH
- antropologie fyzická MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- dějiny starověku MeSH
- DNA analýza genetika MeSH
- emigrace a imigrace MeSH
- kefalometrie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- parita MeSH
- populační dynamika dějiny MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- stochastické procesy MeSH
- zemědělství MeSH
- Check Tag
- dějiny starověku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- historické články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
This paper examines the impact of demographic change resulting from AIDS deaths on the population of Nigeria. The population of Nigeria is increasing annually at a growth rate of 3.2% and also with the increase in prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS. The purpose of this paper is to use a demographic dynamic microsimulation method to look at the impact of death resulting from AIDS given the fact that demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and life expectancy influence population growth rate significantly. In order to determine the impact of birth and death rates resulting from HIV/AIDS and other causes on the population structure over time, a dynamic microsimulation model is used to capture these demographic trends. Dynamic microsimulation models focus on the simulation of behaviour over time. Micro-units are dynamically aged according to a life-cycle behavioural model. Each year individuals are born, become educated, leave home, obtain employment, cohabit and marry, have children, sometimes divorce, and die. Whenever one of these demographic events occurs in a given period, it affects the likelihood of subsequent events happening. From the result we observed that the impact of HIV/AIDS on the population is considerable. It is about 2% under the without HIV/AIDS and with HIV/AIDS scenarios. We also observed an increase in the number of women aged in their 30s giving birth and an increase in the dependency ratio of the old people to 4.2% by 2015. Finally we observed no significant change among the working age population.
- Klíčová slova
- mikrosimulační model,
- MeSH
- AIDS * MeSH
- bezpečný sex MeSH
- demografie * MeSH
- HIV infekce * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita MeSH
- populační předpověď MeSH
- populační růst MeSH
- porodnost MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- sexuální chování MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Nigérie MeSH
This paper aims to address the information gap on the influence of socio-demographic factors on access and utilization of Assistive Technology (AT) among children with disabilities in Malawi. Thus, it contributes towards the realization of the recommendations of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with disabilities and the development of a framework for creating an effective national AT policy. The paper used two statistically matched datasets, namely, the 2017 survey on Living conditions among persons with disabilities in Malawi and the 2015-16 Malawi Demographic and Health survey. Logistic regression and structural equation modeling techniques were utilized to assess the influence of socio-demographic factors on the use of AT among children with disabilities. The results indicate that there is a high level of unmet need for AT among young children aged 2 to 9 and those living in urban areas. The results further indicate that children with multiple disabilities have lower odds (OR = 0.924) of using AT for personal mobility compared to children with a single functional difficulty. These results entail that AT needs for children with multiple disabilities are not adequately addressed. Therefore, when developing policies on AT, younger children and those with multiple disabilities need to be specifically targeted.
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- pomůcky pro sebeobsluhu * MeSH
- postižené děti * MeSH
- postižení * MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Malawi MeSH
Cervical cancer is still one of the most prevalent cancers in women and a significant cause of mortality. Cytokine gene variants and socio-demographic characteristics have been reported as biomarkers for determining the cervical cancer risk in the Indian population. This study was designed to apply a machine learning-based model using these risk factors for better prognosis and prediction of cervical cancer. This study includes the dataset of cytokine gene variants, clinical and socio-demographic characteristics of normal healthy control subjects, and cervical cancer cases. Different risk factors, including demographic details and cytokine gene variants, were analysed using different machine learning approaches. Various statistical parameters were used for evaluating the proposed method. After multi-step data processing and random splitting of the dataset, machine learning methods were applied and evaluated with 5-fold cross-validation and also tested on the unseen data records of a collected dataset for proper evaluation and analysis. The proposed approaches were verified after analysing various performance metrics. The logistic regression technique achieved the highest average accuracy of 82.25% and the highest average F1-score of 82.58% among all the methods. Ridge classifiers and the Gaussian Naïve Bayes classifier achieved the highest sensitivity-85%. The ridge classifier surpasses most of the machine learning classifiers with 84.78% accuracy and 97.83% sensitivity. The risk factors analysed in this study can be taken as biomarkers in developing a cervical cancer diagnosis system. The outcomes demonstrate that the machine learning assisted analysis of cytokine gene variants and socio-demographic characteristics can be utilised effectively for predicting the risk of developing cervical cancer.
- MeSH
- Bayesova věta MeSH
- cytokiny genetika MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- nádory děložního čípku * epidemiologie genetika MeSH
- strojové učení MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- MeSH
- demografie metody MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- organizační modely MeSH
- ozbrojené síly * výchova MeSH
- profesní mobilita MeSH
- vzdělávání odborné metody organizace a řízení MeSH
- zdravotnická povolání výchova MeSH
- zdravotnický personál trendy výchova MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus (DM) has been one of the leading chronic diseases worldwide over past decades. The objective of the study was to identify predictors associated with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in diabetic patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted at the General Hospital of the city of Leskovac, between June and November 2015. The Short Form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire, EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and EuroQol-VAS (EQ-VAS) questionnaires were used. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The total number of patients was 285, 112 men (39.3%) and 173 women (60.7%), average age 63.92 ± 1.07 years. The results of multiple linear regression of socio-demographic characteristics in relation to dimensions of the quality of life measured by SF-36 and EQ-VAS showed that age, country (rural) life, low level of education, retirement, and poor economic status are predictors of lower quality of life. Our results showed that employment has a significant association with higher Physical Component Score (PCS), Mental Component Score (MCS) and EQ-VAS score, which can be explained with higher incomes, improved economic status and less possibility for the occurrence of depressive mood. Patients without formal education have lower QOL. Univariate multiple regression analysis of the presence of micro- and macrovascular complications of DM showed that angina pectoris, heart failure, diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic nephropathy are the most important factors affecting the quality of life in our population. After including the multivariate model, all tested complications remained statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that both socioeconomic and chronic complications are relevant factors of HRQOL in type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus patients. Age, rural lifestyle, retirement, lower level of education and low socioeconomic status, as well as DM complications (angina pectoris, hearth failure, diabetes nephropathy, and diabetes retinopathy) were found to be independent risk factors for the component scores of SF-36 and EQ-VAS score. Taking into consideration the results obtained, health practitioners should be aware not only of the clinical parameters of patients with DM, but also of their educational level and working status.
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- diabetes mellitus epidemiologie MeSH
- komplikace diabetu epidemiologie MeSH
- kvalita života * MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- průřezové studie MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- zdravotní stav * MeSH
- zdravotnické přehledy MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Srbsko MeSH
The natural history of model organisms is often overlooked despite its importance to correctly interpret the outcome of laboratory studies. Ageing is particularly understudied in natural populations. To address this gap, we present lifetime demographic data from wild populations of an annual species, the turquoise killifish, Nothobranchius furzeri, a model species in ageing research, and two other species of coexisting annual killifishes. Annual killifish hatch synchronously, have non-overlapping generations, and reproduce daily after reaching sexual maturity. Data from 13 isolated savanna pools in southern Mozambique demonstrate that the pools supporting killifish populations desiccated 1-4 months after their filling, though some pools persisted longer. Declines in population size over the season were stronger than predicted, because they exceeded the effect of steady habitat shrinking on population density that, contrary to the prediction, decreased. Populations of N. furzeri also became more female-biased with progressing season suggesting that males had lower survival. Nothobranchius community composition did not significantly vary across the season. Our data clearly demonstrate that natural populations of N. furzeri and its congeners suffer strong mortality throughout their lives, with apparent selective disappearance (condition-dependent mortality) at the individual level. This represents selective force that can shape the evolution of lifespan, and its variation across populations, beyond the effects of the gradient in habitat persistence.
- MeSH
- Cyprinodontiformes * genetika fyziologie MeSH
- dlouhověkost MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- hustota populace MeSH
- longitudinální studie MeSH
- poměr pohlaví MeSH
- populační dynamika MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- sympatrie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH