Adult age-at-death estimation
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OBJECTIVE: Age-at-death estimation is usually done manually by experts. As such, manual estimation is subjective and greatly depends on the past experience and proficiency of the expert. This becomes even more critical if experts need to evaluate individuals with unknown population affinity or with affinity that they are not familiar with. The purpose of this study is to design a novel age-at-death estimation method allowing for automatic evaluation on computers, thus eliminating the human factor. METHODS: We used a traditional machine-learning approach with explicit feature extraction. First, we identified and described the features that are relevant for age-at-death estimation. Then, we created a multi-linear regression model combining these features. Finally, we analysed the model performance in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Slope of Residuals (SoR) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). RESULTS: The main result of this study is a population-independent method of estimating an individual's age-at-death using the acetabulum of the pelvis. Apart from data acquisition, the whole procedure of pre-processing, feature extraction and age estimation is fully automated and implemented as a computer program. This program is a part of a freely available web-based software tool called CoxAGE3D, which is available at https://coxage3d.fit.cvut.cz/. Based on our dataset, the MAE of the presented method is about 10.7 years. In addition, five population-specific models for Thai, Lithuanian, Portuguese, Greek and Swiss populations are also given. The MAEs for these populations are 9.6, 9.8, 10.8, 10.5 and 9.2 years, respectively. Our age-at-death estimation method is suitable for individuals with unknown population affinity and provides acceptable accuracy. The age estimation error cannot be completely eliminated, because it is a consequence of the variability of the ageing process of different individuals not only across different populations but also within a certain population.
- MeSH
- acetabulum * diagnostické zobrazování MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- software * MeSH
- soudní antropologie * metody MeSH
- strojové učení * MeSH
- určení kostního věku * metody MeSH
- zobrazování trojrozměrné * MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Age-at-death estimation of adult skeletal remains is a key part of biological profile estimation, yet it remains problematic for several reasons. One of them may be the subjective nature of the evaluation of age-related changes, or the fact that the human eye is unable to detect all the relevant surface changes. We have several aims: (1) to validate already existing computer models for age estimation; (2) to propose our own expert system based on computational approaches to eliminate the factor of subjectivity and to use the full potential of surface changes on an articulation area; and (3) to determine what age range the pubic symphysis is useful for age estimation. A sample of 483 3D representations of the pubic symphyseal surfaces from the ossa coxae of adult individuals coming from four European (two from Portugal, one from Switzerland and Greece) and one Asian (Thailand) identified skeletal collections was used. A validation of published algorithms showed very high error in our dataset-the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) ranged from 16.2 and 25.1 years. Two completely new approaches were proposed in this paper: SASS (Simple Automated Symphyseal Surface-based) and AANNESS (Advanced Automated Neural Network-grounded Extended Symphyseal Surface-based), whose MAE values are 11.7 and 10.6 years, respectively. Lastly, it was demonstrated that our models could estimate the age-at-death using the pubic symphysis over the entire adult age range. The proposed models offer objective age estimates with low estimation error (compared to traditional visual methods) and are able to estimate age using the pubic symphysis across the entire adult age range.
- MeSH
- data mining MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- soudní antropologie metody MeSH
- symphysis pubica * MeSH
- určení kostního věku metody MeSH
- zobrazování trojrozměrné MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Recent advances in age-at-death estimation from the skeleton indicate that some of the most commonly used methods based on linear regression provide different results compared to new techniques using Bayesian statistics, and underestimate individuals over 60 years old which leads to biased prehistoric lifespans. The question is how the choice of age-at-death estimation method can influence subsequent comparisons between different populations or further analysis, such as assessment of the effect of early stress on mortality in adult individuals. The aim of our work is twofold: firstly, to test the differences between age estimation methods evaluating one indicator (the auricular surface), namely the original (Lovejoy et al. 1985), revised (Buckberry & Chamberlain 2002) and newly developed (Schmitt 2005) methods, on the Early Medieval adult population from Mikulčice - IIIrd church (Czech Republic, Central Europe). The secondary objective is to assess whether the different age distributions based on the different methods have an impact on age-dependent analyses, in this case the relationship between LEH and age-at-death. Our results showed that in the adult population from Mikulčice - IIIrd church, the original and revised methods provided different mortality profiles: the proportion of individuals older than 60 years acquired using Lovejoy's method was only 6.7%, while the newer methods increased the proportion to 26.7% (Buckberry & Chamberlain 2002) and 23.9% (Schmitt 2005). The choice of age-at-death estimation, and thus the different age distributions, also resulted in differences in the achieved age of individuals with and without stress markers, and specifically in the significance of the differences found. This finding seeks to draw attention to the fact that inconsistency in the use of different age-estimation methods can influence the results of further analyses and cause problems when comparing burial grounds.
- MeSH
- antropologie fyzická MeSH
- Bayesova věta MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hypoplazie zubní skloviny * MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- určení kostního věku * MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
This study describes the estimation of age at death from the compact bone of burned and unburned human ribs. Bone samples came from individuals of known age, sex, and cause of death. Each bone was divided into four sections; three sections were burned at 700, 800, and 1000°C. Undecalcified, unstained ground cross sections were photographed, and 28 variables were analyzed in the bones using SigmaScan Pro 5. Age-related as well as heat-induced microstructural changes were found. These changes were often very similar and made estimating the age at death difficult in the burned bones. Differences between the sexes were found in some variables, caused by both aging and also by the different behavior of some variables during burning. Regression equations were developed to estimate age at death for unburned bones (r² = 0.579 and 0.707), bones burned at 700°C (r² = 0.453 and 0.501), and 800°C (r² = 0.334 and 0.340).
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- fotografování MeSH
- Haversův systém patologie MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- mikroskopie MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- počítačové zpracování obrazu MeSH
- pohlavní dimorfismus MeSH
- popálení patologie MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- soudní patologie MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- určení kostního věku metody MeSH
- žebra zranění patologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
The age-at-death estimation thresholds have recently been shifted towards a more objective assessment of the aging process. Such a non-subjective approach offers quantitative methods of age estimation; for instance, the method relating to the surfaces of pubic symphyses of males published by Stoyanova et al. (J Forensic Sci 62:1434-1444, 2017). A validation study was conducted to test the method performance in European samples. The sample consisted of 96 meshes of pubic symphyses of male individuals (known sex and age) that came from four different samples (two Portuguese collections, one Swiss, and one Crete). Stoyanova's method based on five regression models (three univariate and two multivariate models) performed worse in our sample, but only when the whole sample (without age limitation) was included. A sample limited to individuals under 40 years of age achieved better results in our study. The best results were reached through the thin plate spline algorithm (TPS/BE) with a root mean square error of 5.93 years and inaccuracy of 4.47 years. Generally, the multivariate regression models did not contribute to better age estimation. In our sample in all age categories, age was systematically underestimated. The quantitative method tested in this study works best for individuals under 40 years of age and provides a suitable basis for further research.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- počítačová simulace MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- soudní antropologie MeSH
- symphysis pubica anatomie a histologie MeSH
- určení kostního věku metody MeSH
- zobrazování trojrozměrné MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- validační studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
Long-term trends in robusticity of lower limb bones in the genus Homo through the Pleistocene until the present have been proposed, which have been interpreted as a consequence of decreasing levels of mobility and activity patterns, changes in lifestyle, and environmental factors. There has also long been evidence that skeletal strength increases over an individual's lifespan. This increase is caused by continuous bone remodeling that optimizes the structure of a bone to resist mechanical loadings and creates a balance between endosteal resorption and subperiosteal apposition. However, none of the previous studies of temporal trends in robusticity has considered both processes and analyzed how individual age-related robusticity might influence higher-level temporal trends. This paper therefore explores temporal trends in robusticity of lower limb long bones within the genus Homo and considers how individual ages-at-death can confound published evolutionary trends, given the fact that some aspects of relative bone strength tend to increase over individual lifespans. Cross-sectional diaphyseal properties of the midshaft and proximal femur and midshaft tibia of Pleistocene and early Holocene individuals, together with data on age-at-death are used to analyze changes in relative bone strength relative to individuals' ages and evolutionary time. The results show increasing bone strength in adulthood until the fourth decade and then a slight decrease, an observation that conforms to previously published results on recent human populations. However, no significant impact of age-at-death on the trends along an evolutionary trajectory has been detected. The evolutionary trends in femoral and tibial relative strength can be described as fluctuating, probably as a consequence of changing mobility patterns, environmentally and technologically influenced behaviors, and demographic processes. The differences between evolutionary trends published in several studies are explained primarily as a result of different ways of standardizing cross-sectional parameters for size, and differences in sample composition.
- MeSH
- biologická evoluce MeSH
- biomechanika MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- femur anatomie a histologie fyziologie MeSH
- Hominidae anatomie a histologie fyziologie MeSH
- kostní denzita * MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- tibie anatomie a histologie fyziologie MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- MeSH
- angiografie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- elektrokardiografie MeSH
- koronární cévy MeSH
- koronární nemoc diagnóza mortalita MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- náhlá smrt etiologie MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- spirometrie MeSH
- spotřeba kyslíku MeSH
- zátěžový test MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
The assessment of age-at-death is an important and challenging part of investigations of human skeletal remains. The main objective of the present study was to apply different mathematical approaches in order to reach more accurate and reliable results in age estimation. A multi-ethnic dataset (n=941) of evaluated age-related changes on the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the hip bone was used. Two research groups examined nine different mathematical approaches. The best results were reached by Multi-linear regression, followed by the Collapsed regression model, with MAE values of 9.7 and 9.9 years, respectively, and with RMSE values of 12.1 and 12.2, respectively. The mean accuracy of decision tree models ranged between 30.7% and 72.3%, with the model using only the PUSx indicator performing the best. Moreover, our results indicate that the limiting factor of age estimation can be the visual evaluation of age-related changes. Further research is required to objectify the proposed methods for estimating age.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- neuronové sítě MeSH
- os ilium anatomie a histologie MeSH
- rozhodovací stromy MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- statistické modely * MeSH
- symphysis pubica anatomie a histologie MeSH
- tělesné pozůstatky * MeSH
- určení kostního věku metody MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
This study introduces a new quantity, the combined arteriosclerotic index (CAI), which is defined as the ratio between the diameter and the longitudinal prestrain of an artery. The longitudinal prestrain has been adopted as the ratio between the in situ length and the excised length of the abdominal aorta, and is a measure of arterial elasticity. During ageing, arteriosclerosis is manifested by the loss of pretension and by enlargement of the diameter of the artery. CAI combines these two effects. A sample of 61 female and 194 male autopsy measurements of human abdominal aortas shows that CAI correlates significantly with chronological age (R = 0.916/0.921; female/male). The sample had the following parameters: age 53 ± 19/48 ± 16 years; diameter of the abdominal aorta 12.4 ± 2.2/13.4 ± 2.1 mm; and longitudinal prestrain 1.13 ± 0.10/1.15 ± 0.10 (mean ± sample standard deviation; female/male). The resulting CAI was 11.2 ± 2.7/11.9 ± 2.6 mm. The classical linear regression model was employed for age estimation by CAI. The model gave a residual standard deviation of 7.6/6.3 years and a 95% prediction interval range of ± 15.4/12.5 years (female/male). A two-sample t-test confirmed that there are significant differences between the female and male population during ageing, reflected by CAI, unlike longitudinal prestrain. It was concluded that CAI is a suitable predictor of age at time of death and is easily obtainable in the autopsy room.
- MeSH
- aorta abdominalis patologie MeSH
- arterioskleróza patologie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mrtvola MeSH
- pitva metody MeSH
- pružnost MeSH
- stárnutí patologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
AIM: The economy of each state provides a significant amount of money into the health care system with the aim of knowing the health status of its population in the context of socioeconomic characteristics for effective resource allocation. In recent years, there is a growing number of cancer deaths in Slovakia. Therefore, the structure of cancer deaths according to its primary determinants, such as age, sex and education with the aim of effective implementation of prevention programs in Slovakia was examined. METHODS: Main source of data on deaths from 1996 to 2014 was provided by National Health Information Centre in Slovakia. However, data were available only from 2011. Standardized mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated by the method of direct standardization using European standard population. The R project for statistical computing was used for calculation of statistically significant differences among various groups of mortality. RESULTS: The results show that people with primary education die from cancer later than people with higher education. However, major differences related to both sex and age are present in people with university education. A different variety of cancers occur in childhood (neoplasm of brain), adolescents (neoplasm of bone), young adults (neoplasm of brain), or adults (lung cancer and breast cancer). Malignant neoplasm of brain was more prevalent at higher education levels, Malignant neoplasm of bladder and Malignant melanoma of skin were more prevalent at the university level of education. CONCLUSIONS: The results can be useful for economists to define the health priorities in each country, make the financial decisions in economics, and thus contribute to better health, economic growth, as well as effective spending of health expenditures.
- MeSH
- disparity zdravotního stavu * MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- nádory mortalita MeSH
- příčina smrti MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- sexuální faktory MeSH
- stupeň vzdělání * MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Slovenská republika epidemiologie MeSH