Land-use regression
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Land-use regression (LUR) models provide location and time specific estimates of exposure to air pollution and thereby improve the sensitivity of health effects models. However, they require pollutant concentrations at multiple locations along with land-use variables. Often, monitoring is performed over short durations using mobile monitoring with research-grade instruments. Low-cost PM monitors provide an alternative approach that increases the spatial and temporal resolution of the air quality data. LUR models were developed to predict hourly PM concentrations across a metropolitan area using PM concentrations measured simultaneously at multiple locations with low-cost monitors. Monitors were placed at 23 sites during the 2015/16 heating season. Monitors were externally calibrated using co-located measurements including a reference instrument (GRIMM particle spectrometer). LUR models for each hour of the day and weekdays/weekend days were developed using the deletion/substitution/addition algorithm. Coefficients of determination for hourly PM predictions ranged from 0.66 and 0.76 (average 0.7). The hourly-resolved LUR model results will be used in epidemiological studies to examine if and how quickly, increases in ambient PM concentrations trigger adverse health events by reducing the exposure misclassification that arises from using less time resolved exposure estimates.
River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts.
- MeSH
- biodiverzita MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- řeky MeSH
- ryby * MeSH
- teoretické modely * MeSH
- zachování přírodních zdrojů MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use-driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species-specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up- vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled "moderate" and "severe" climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller-bodied fishes and to contract for larger-bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller-bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger-bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller-bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.
- MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- druhová specificita MeSH
- ekosystém * MeSH
- klimatické změny * MeSH
- řeky MeSH
- rozšíření zvířat * MeSH
- ryby fyziologie MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
The biodiversity of the Southern Balkans, part of the Mediterranean global biodiversity hot-spot, is threatened by land use intensification and abandonment, the latter causing forest encroachment of formerly open habitats. We investigated the impact of forest encroachment on butterfly species richness, community species composition and the representation of life history traits by repeated seasonal visits of 150 one-hectare sites in five separate regions in three countries-Greece, Bulgaria, and the Republic of Macedonia (FYROM-the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)- 10 replicates for each habitat type of grasslands, open formations and scrub forest within each region. Grasslands and open formations sites hosted in average more species and more red-listed species than scrub forest, while no pattern was found for numbers of Mediterranean species. As shown by ordination analyses, each of the three habitat types hosted distinct butterfly communities, with Mediterranean species inclining either towards grasslands or open formations. Analysing the representation of life history traits revealed that successional development from grasslands and open formations towards scrub forest shifts the community composition towards species overwintering in earlier stages, having fewer generations per year, and inhabiting large European or Eurosiberian (e.g. northern) ranges; it decreases the representation of Mediterranean endemics. The loss of grasslands and semi-open formations due to forest encroachment thus threatens exactly the species that should be the focus of conservation attention in the Mediterranean region, and innovative conservation actions to prevent ongoing forest encroachment are badly needed.
- MeSH
- charakteristiky bydlení * MeSH
- druhová specificita MeSH
- lesy * MeSH
- motýli růst a vývoj MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- stadia vývoje * MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Středomoří MeSH
Military training generates frequent and irregular disturbance followed by succession, resulting in fine-scaled mosaics of ecological conditions in military training areas (MTAs). The awareness that MTAs may represent important biodiversity sanctuaries is increasing recently. Concurrently, changes in military doctrine are leading to abandonment of many MTAs, which are being brought under civilian administration and opened for development. We surveyed vascular plants in 43 and butterflies in 41 MTAs in the Czech Republic and compared the records with plants and butterfly records from 301 and 125 nature reserves, respectively. After controlling for effects of area, geography, and climate, we found that plant species richness was equal in the two land use categories; butterfly richness was higher in MTAs; reserves hosted more endangered plants and more endangered butterflies. Ordination analyses, again controlled for potential nuisance effects, showed that MTAs and reserves differed also in species composition. While specialist species of nationally rarest habitat types inclined towards the reserves, MTAs hosted a high representation of endangered species depending on either disturbed ground, or successionaly transient conditions. These patterns reflect the history of the national nature reserves network, and the disturbance-succession dynamics within MTAs. The conservation value of formerly army-used lands is increasingly threatened by abandonment, and conservationists should support either alternative uses mimicking army activities, or sustainable management regimes.
- MeSH
- biodiverzita * MeSH
- druhová specificita MeSH
- monitorování životního prostředí metody MeSH
- motýli klasifikace růst a vývoj MeSH
- ohrožené druhy MeSH
- populační dynamika MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- stromy klasifikace růst a vývoj MeSH
- vojenská zařízení * MeSH
- zachování přírodních zdrojů metody MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
This study examined the strength and shape of associations between perceived environmental attributes and adults' recreational walking, using data collected from 13,745 adult participants in 12 countries. Perceived residential density, land use mix, street connectivity, aesthetics, safety from crime, and proximity to parks were linearly associated with recreational walking, while curvilinear associations were found for residential density, land use mix, and aesthetics. The observed associations were consistent across countries, except for aesthetics. Using data collected from environmentally diverse countries, this study confirmed findings from prior single-country studies. Present findings suggest that similar environmental attributes are associated with recreational walking internationally.
- MeSH
- charakteristiky bydlení statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- chůze psychologie statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- estetika MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- městské obyvatelstvo MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- percepce MeSH
- průřezové studie MeSH
- průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- rekreace MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- společenská třída MeSH
- srovnání kultur MeSH
- životní prostředí - projekt statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Austrálie MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
- Hongkong MeSH
- Jižní Amerika MeSH
- Mexiko MeSH
- Nový Zéland MeSH
- Spojené státy americké MeSH
The accelerating rates of international trade, travel, and transport in the latter half of the twentieth century have led to the progressive mixing of biota from across the world and the number of species introduced to new regions continues to increase. The importance of biogeographic, climatic, economic, and demographic factors as drivers of this trend is increasingly being realized but as yet there is no consensus regarding their relative importance. Whereas little may be done to mitigate the effects of geography and climate on invasions, a wider range of options may exist to moderate the impacts of economic and demographic drivers. Here we use the most recent data available from Europe to partition between macroecological, economic, and demographic variables the variation in alien species richness of bryophytes, fungi, vascular plants, terrestrial insects, aquatic invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Only national wealth and human population density were statistically significant predictors in the majority of models when analyzed jointly with climate, geography, and land cover. The economic and demographic variables reflect the intensity of human activities and integrate the effect of factors that directly determine the outcome of invasion such as propagule pressure, pathways of introduction, eutrophication, and the intensity of anthropogenic disturbance. The strong influence of economic and demographic variables on the levels of invasion by alien species demonstrates that future solutions to the problem of biological invasions at a national scale lie in mitigating the negative environmental consequences of human activities that generate wealth and by promoting more sustainable population growth.
- MeSH
- bezobratlí růst a vývoj MeSH
- biodiverzita MeSH
- biologické modely MeSH
- ekosystém MeSH
- houby růst a vývoj MeSH
- hustota populace MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lidské činnosti MeSH
- podnebí MeSH
- populační dynamika MeSH
- regresní analýza MeSH
- rostliny MeSH
- savci růst a vývoj MeSH
- vývoj rostlin MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- životní prostředí MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
AIM: This study presents a procedure of complex assessment of the environment impact on asthma prevalence. This approach is also applicable for any other disease which is supposed to be associated with the quality of the outdoor environment. METHODS: The input data included asthma prevalence values from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) cross-section questionnaire survey (13,456 children) and annual reports on activities of all paediatricians in the Czech Republic (2,072 surgeries); concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3, benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, As, Cd, Pb and Ni; emissions of total suspended particles, SO2, NOx, CO, VOC, NH3; traffic intensity; land cover (anthropogenic area, urban greenery, arable land, grassland, other agricultural land, forests); proportion of cultivation of individual agricultural crops (17 categories); and proportion of individual woods (15 categories). Using the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis the integration of all source data through one spatial unit was achieved and complete data sets were compiled to be subjected to statistical analysis (combination of factor analysis with logistic/linear regression). RESULTS: In this study, the approach of combined use of GIS analyses and statistical evaluation of large input data sets was tested. The asthma prevalence demonstrated positive associations with the air pollution (PM10, PM2.5, benzene, benzo(a)pyren, SO2, Pb, Cd) and the rate of agricultural use of land (growing oats, rye, arable fodder crops). Conversely, there was a negative association with the occurrence of natural forests (ash, poplar, fir, beech, spruce, pine). No significant associations were observed with the distance from the road, traffic intensity and NO2 concentration. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the outdoor quality may be one of the crucial factors for asthma prevalence.
- MeSH
- bronchiální astma epidemiologie MeSH
- charakteristiky bydlení * MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- geografické informační systémy MeSH
- látky znečišťující vzduch analýza MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lineární modely MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- prevalence MeSH
- prostorová analýza MeSH
- životní prostředí * MeSH
- znečištění ovzduší analýza MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- předškolní dítě MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
OBJECTIVE: We examined the prevalence of unintentional injuries and associated risk factors among university students in Canakkale city, Turkey. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2007-2008. Atotal of 4,762 students completed the questionnaire. Risk factors associated with the rate of accidents were assessed by chi-square analysis and effects of these factors on unintentional injuries were described by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The rate of unintentional injuries among university students was 14.9% during the previous 12 months. The most reported injuries occurred on the road (43.8%), at home (33.2%) and outside the home (26.9%) such as workplaces, schools or sports venues. The prevalence of unintentional injuries was significantly higher in males than females (18.1% vs. 12.0% p <0.05). Results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that male gender (OR 1.51), studying in college and vocational school (OR 1.34), perception of very bad (OR 0.49) or good economic status (OR 0.49), drinking alcohol (OR 1.52), using illicit substances (OR 1.70), having a diagnosed illness (OR 1.36), or having risk of developing depres- sion (OR 1.54) had significant effects on the risk of unintentional injuries (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated that male gender, studying in college and vocational schools, illicit substance use, poor economic conditions, having a diagnosed illness and risk of developing depression can be risk factors for unintentional injuries among university students. Public health training programmes giving priorityto high-risk groups such as university and high school students may be a valuable tool in reducing unintentional injuries among young people.
- MeSH
- deprese epidemiologie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- městské obyvatelstvo MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- poruchy spojené s užíváním psychoaktivních látek epidemiologie MeSH
- prevalence MeSH
- průřezové studie MeSH
- rány a poranění epidemiologie MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- sexuální faktory MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- studenti statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- univerzity statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- úrazy a nehody statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mladý dospělý MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Turecko MeSH
BACKGROUND: Maternal substance use can pose a risk to the fetal health. We studied the background characteristics of women with substance use disorders (SUDs) and selected neonatal outcomes in their children. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A database-linkage study was performed. The sample consisted of pregnant women with a SUD during pregnancy (ICD-10 diagnosis F10-F19 except F17, n = 1710), women not diagnosed with a SUD (n = 1,511,310) in Czechia in 2000-2014, and their children. The monitored neonatal outcomes were gestational age, birth weight, preterm birth, and small-for-gestational age (SGA). Binary logistic regression adjusted for age, marital status, education, concurrent substance use, and prenatal care was performed. RESULTS: Women with illicit SUDs were younger, more often unmarried, with a lower level of education, a higher abortion rate, a higher smoking rate, and lower compliance to prenatal care than women with a SUD related to alcohol, or sedatives and hypnotics (SH). Women with a SUD had worse socioeconomic situations, poorer pregnancy care, and worse neonatal outcomes than women without a SUD. After adjustment, we found no difference in SGA between the illicit SUD groups and the alcohol and the SH groups. The newborns from all SUD groups had a higher risk of SGA when compared to women without a SUD. However after adjustment, the difference remained significant just in the alcohol group (OR = 1.9, 95 % CI = 1.4-2.6). CONCLUSION: Mother's SUD during pregnancy increased risk of fetal growth restriction as measured by SGA. The role of maternal socioeconomic and lifestyle factors for the risk of SGA was substantial.
- MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hypotrofický novorozenec fyziologie MeSH
- komplikace těhotenství ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- porodní hmotnost účinky léků fyziologie MeSH
- poruchy spojené s užíváním psychoaktivních látek ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- předčasný porod ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- prenatální péče ekonomika MeSH
- registrace * MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- růstová retardace plodu ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory * MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- výsledek těhotenství ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- zpožděný efekt prenatální expozice ekonomika epidemiologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- novorozenec MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH