Risk prediction score
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Circulating proenkephalin (PENK) is a stable endogenous polypeptide with fast response to glomerular dysfunction and tubular damage. This study examined the predictive value of PENK for renal outcomes and mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: Proenkephalin was measured in plasma in a prospective multicentre ACS cohort from Switzerland (n = 4787) and in validation cohorts from the UK (n = 1141), Czechia (n = 927), and Germany (n = 220). A biomarker-enhanced risk score (KID-ACS score) for simultaneous prediction of in-hospital acute kidney injury (AKI) and 30-day mortality was derived and externally validated. RESULTS: On multivariable adjustment for established risk factors, circulating PENK remained associated with in-hospital AKI [per log2 increase: adjusted odds ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.09, P = .007] and 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.73, 95% CI 1.85-4.02, P < .001). The KID-ACS score integrates PENK and showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of .72 (95% CI .68-.76) for in-hospital AKI and .91 (95% CI .87-.95) for 30-day mortality in the derivation cohort. Upon external validation, KID-ACS achieved similarly high performance for in-hospital AKI (Zurich: AUC .73, 95% CI .70-.77; Czechia: AUC .75, 95% CI .68-.81; Germany: AUC .71, 95% CI .55-.87) and 30-day mortality (UK: AUC .87, 95% CI .83-.91; Czechia: AUC .91, 95% CI .87-.94; Germany: AUC .96, 95% CI .92-1.00), outperforming the contrast-associated AKI score and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 score, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating PENK offers incremental value for predicting in-hospital AKI and mortality in ACS. The simple six-item KID-ACS risk score integrates PENK and provides a novel tool for simultaneous assessment of renal and mortality risk in patients with ACS.
- MeSH
- akutní koronární syndrom * mortalita krev MeSH
- akutní poškození ledvin * MeSH
- biologické markery * krev MeSH
- enkefaliny * krev MeSH
- hodnocení rizik metody MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- proteinové prekurzory * krev MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
Přes veškerý pokrok v léčbě infarktu myokardu s elevacemi úseku ST (STEMI) je riziko vzniku trombu v levé komoře (left ventricular thrombus, LVT) i nadále zdrojem značných obav vzhledem k možným embolickým komplikacím. Pro vedení léčebných intervencí a zlepšení klinických výsledků je proto naprosto nezbytné časné vyhledání pacientů s vysokým rizikem vzniku LVT. Cíl: Cílem této studie bylo vypracovat praktické a v klinické praxi použitelné skóre rizika (Early-LVT Risk Score), které by s použitím snadno dostupných demografických, klinických a echokardiografických parametrů umožnilo předpovídat časný vznik LVT po STEMI přední stěny. Metody: Byla provedena subanalýza údajů monocentrické randomizované kontrolované studie, které byly získány od pacientů po STEMI přední stěny a s echokardiografickým vyšetřením v prvních sedmi dnech po příhodě. Byly shromážděny demografické, klinické a diagnostické údaje. Pro každého pacienta bylo po identifikaci proměnných významně spojených se vznikem LVT vypočteno nově navržené skóre (s postupně přičítanými body pro každou proměnnou podle poměru šancí). Pro výpočet skóre se používá věk, klinické projevy (klasifikace podle Killipa a Kimballa), infarkt myokardu v anamnéze a nález z echokardiografického vyšetření (apikální aneurysma). Pro posouzení predikční hodnoty skóre byla provedena analýza křivky ROC. Výsledky: Do studie bylo zařazeno celkem 68 pacientů průměrného věku 66,1 ± 13,5 roku; 81 % účastníků představovali muži. Apikální trombus byl nalezen u 19 % hodnocené populace. Vypracované skóre rizika prokázalo jednoznačnou spojitost se vznikem trombu (16 % vs. 3 %; p < 0,01; 2 7,07). Analýza křivky ROC prokázala spolehlivost skóre v predikci časného vzniku trombu (plocha pod křivkou 0,83; 95% CI 0,71–0,95; p < 0,01). Závěr: Z uvedených údajů lze usuzovat, že skóre rizika časného vzniku levokomorového trombu účinně stratifikuje pacienty podle jejich rizika po STEMI přední stěny a lze jej používat v každodenní praxi při vyhle- dávání pacientů vyžadujících důkladnější vyšetření.
Despite advancements in the management of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the risk of left ventricular thrombus (LVT) remains a significant concern due to its potential for embolic complications. Early identification of patients at high risk for LVT is crucial for guiding therapeutic interventions and improving clinical outcomes. Aim: This study aimed to develop a practical and clinically applicable risk score (Early-LVT Risk Score) that integrates readily available demographic, clinical, and echocardiographic parameters to predict the likelihood of early LVT formation post anterior STEMI. Methods: A sub-analysis of a single-center randomized controlled trial was conducted among patients with anterior STEMI and performed echocardiography in the first seven days following the event. Demographical, clinical, and diagnostic data were collected. The newly designed score was calculated for each patient, after identification of the variables significantly associated with LVT formation (points attributed for each variable according to odds ratio). The score incorporates age, clinical presentation (Killip-Kimball classification), history of previous myocardial infarction and echocardiographic findings (apical aneurysm). ROC curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of the score.
AIMS: While heart failure (HF) symptoms are associated with adverse prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI), they are not routinely used for patients' stratification. The primary objective of this study was to develop and validate a score to predict mortality risk after MI, combining remotely recorded HF symptoms and clinical risk factors, and to compare it against the guideline-recommended Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort study design using prospectively collected data from consecutive patients hospitalized for MI at a large tertiary heart centre between June 2017 and September 2022 was used. Data from 1135 patients (aged 64 ± 12 years, 26.7% women), were split into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Components of the 23-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire and clinical variables were used as possible predictors. The best model included the following variables: age, HF history, admission creatinine and heart rate, ejection fraction at hospital discharge, and HF symptoms 1 month after discharge including walking impairment, leg swelling, and change in HF symptoms. Based on these variables, the PragueMi score was developed. In the validation cohort, the PragueMi score showed superior discrimination to the GRACE score for 6 months [the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 90.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 81.8-98.4 vs. 77.4, 95% CI 62.2-92.5, P = 0.04) and 1-year risk prediction (AUC 89.7, 95% CI 83.5-96.0 vs. 76.2, 95% CI 64.7-87.7, P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: The PragueMi score combining HF symptoms and clinical variables performs better than the currently recommended GRACE score.
- MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- hodnocení rizik MeSH
- infarkt myokardu * mortalita diagnóza MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- metody pro podporu rozhodování MeSH
- prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
- prognóza MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- reprodukovatelnost výsledků MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- srdeční selhání * mortalita diagnóza patofyziologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- validační studie MeSH
- MeSH
- finanční podpora výzkumu jako téma MeSH
- hodnocení rizik statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- infarkt myokardu mortalita patologie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- koronární nemoc mortalita patologie prevence a kontrola MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita MeSH
- prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- vápník analýza MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.
- MeSH
- hodnocení rizik MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci * epidemiologie MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- prospektivní studie MeSH
- rizikové faktory kardiovaskulárních chorob MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH
- Polsko MeSH
- Rusko MeSH
XVI, 199 s. : il. ; 22 cm
Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.
- MeSH
- Asijci genetika MeSH
- Bayesova věta MeSH
- celogenomová asociační studie MeSH
- genetická predispozice k nemoci * MeSH
- genom lidský genetika MeSH
- hodnocení rizik * MeSH
- jednonukleotidový polymorfismus genetika MeSH
- kolorektální nádory epidemiologie genetika patologie MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- multifaktoriální dědičnost genetika MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
Východiska: Karcinom prsu je komplexní, multifaktoriální onemocnění, na jehož vzniku se podílejí i genetické faktory. Kromě relativně vzácných patogenních variant ve vysoce či středně penetrantních nádorových predispozičních genech ovlivňují riziko vzniku karcinomu prsu i početné nízce penetrantní alely, které vnímáme jako faktory polygenní dědičnosti. Nízce penetrantní alely mají samostatně zanedbatelný význam, avšak jejich kumulativní účinek může dosáhnout klinicky významných hodnot a lze jej vyjádřit pomocí skóre polygenního rizika (polygenic risk score – PRS), které se v současnosti zvažuje jako možný nástroj pro přesnější odhad absolutního a kumulativního rizika onkologického onemocnění u konkrétní osoby. Cíl: V zahraničí již bylo vyvinuto několik setů pro jednonukleotidový polymorfizmus (single nucleotide polymorphism – SNP) pro stanovení PRS za účelem využití metody v individualizaci rizika v klinické praxi. Následující text si klade za cíl osvětlit základy stanovení PRS a jeho interpretaci jako možného predikčního nástroje. Využití PRS by však mělo být vždy podmíněno genetickým vyšetřením patogenních variant v nádorových predispozičních genech.
Background: Breast cancer is a complex, multifactorial disease influenced by many genetic factors. Besides the relatively rare pathogenic variants in high or moderate penetrant cancer predisposition genes, breast cancer risk is modified by numerous low risk alleles considered to be polygenic genetic factors. While the risks associated with individual polygenic loci are negligible, its cumulative effect can reach clinically significant values and it can be expressed as a polygenic risk score (PRS). PRS is recently considered to be a possible tool improving assessment of absolute and cumulative risks at the individual level. Purpose: Several single nucleotide polymorphism sets for PRS assessment have recently been developed and prepared for their implementation into clinical practice. The following text aims to explain the fundamental principles of the PRS assessment and its interpretation as a candidate prediction tool. The use of the PRS should always depend on genetic analysis of pathogenic variants in cancer predisposition genes including its current limitations.
- Klíčová slova
- polygenní dědičnost karcinomu prsu, sporadický karcinom prsu,
- MeSH
- genetická predispozice k nemoci MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- multifaktoriální dědičnost MeSH
- nádory prsu * etiologie genetika MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- přehledy MeSH
UNLABELLED: Chronic heart failure (CHF) remains a leading cause of cardiovascular death worldwide. Current risk models allow better prognosis, however further tools for assessing risk are needed. Thus, this study was aimed to evaluate whether biomarker risk prediction score is powerful tool for risk assessment of three-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in CHF patients. METHODS: A prospective study on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, as well as the frequency of occurrence of death from any cause in a cohort of 388 patients with CHF during 3 years of observation was performed. Circulating levels of NT-pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), galectin-3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), osteoprotegerin and its soluble receptor sRANKL, osteopontin, osteonectin, adiponectin, endothelial apoptotic microparticles (EMPs) and mononuclear progenitor cells (MPCs) were measured at baseline. RESULTS: Median follow-up of patients included in the study was 2.76 years. There were 285 cardiovascular events determined, including 43 deaths and 242 readmissions. Independent predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with CHF were NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31(+)/annexin V(+) EMPs and EMPs/CD14(+)CD309(+) MPCs ratio. Index of cardiovascular risk was calculated by mathematical summation of all ranks of independent predictors, which occurred in the patients included in the study. The findings showed that the average value of the index of cardiovascular risk in patients with CHF was 3.17 points (95% CI = 1.65-5.10 points). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with CHF and the magnitude of the risk of less than 4 units have an advantage in survival when compared with patients for whom obtained higher values of ranks cardiovascular risk score. CONCLUSION: Biomarker risk score for cumulative cardiovascular events, constructed by measurement of circulating NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31(+)/annexin V(+) EMPs and EMPs/CD14(+)CD309(+) MPCs ratio, reliably predicts the probability survival of patients with CHF, regardless of age, gender, state of the contractile function of the left ventricle and the number of comorbidities.
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
BACKGROUND: Despite a general decline in mean levels across populations, LDL-cholesterol levels remain a major risk factor for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The APOB, LDL-R, CILP, and SORT-1 genes have been shown to contain variants that have significant effects on plasma cholesterol levels. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined polymorphisms within these genes in 1191 controls and 929 patients with ACS. Only rs646776 within SORT-1 was significantly associated with a risk of ACS (P < 0.05, AA vs. + G comparison; OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45). With regard to genetic risk score (GRS), the presence of at least 7 alleles associated with elevated cholesterol levels was connected with increased risk (P < 0.01) of ACS (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.06-1.52). Neither total mortality nor CVD mortality in ACS subjects (follow up-9.84 ± 3.82 years) was associated with the SNPs analysed or cholesterol-associated GRS. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, based on only a few potent SNPs known to affect plasma cholesterol, GRS has the potential to predict ACS risk, but not ACS associated mortality.
- MeSH
- akutní koronární syndrom * genetika MeSH
- cholesterol MeSH
- genetické rizikové skóre * MeSH
- jednonukleotidový polymorfismus genetika MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika MeSH