Predictability
Dotaz
Zobrazit nápovědu
Tick-borne encephalitis is a serious arboviral infection with unstable dynamics and profound inter-annual fluctuations in case numbers. A dependable predictive model has been sought since the discovery of the disease. The present study demonstrates that four superimposed cycles, approximately 2·4, 3, 5·4, and 10·4 years long, can account for three-fifths of the variation in the disease fluctuations over central Europe. Using harmonic regression, these cycles can be projected into the future, yielding forecasts of sufficient accuracy for up to 4 years ahead. For the years 2016-2018, this model predicts elevated incidence levels in most parts of the region.
- MeSH
- incidence MeSH
- klíšťová encefalitida epidemiologie virologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- periodicita MeSH
- teoretické modely MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa epidemiologie MeSH
Retinoids are newly detected compounds in aquatic ecosystems associated with cyanobacterial water blooms. Their potential health risks are only scarcely described despite numerous detections of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) and its derivatives in the environment. Besides the known teratogen ATRA there is only little or no information about their potency and namely their effects in vivo. We characterize ATRA and 8 other retinoids reported to occur in the environment for their bioactivity and teratogenicity using four in vitro reporter gene assays and zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryotoxicity assay. Our results document the ability of these compounds to interfere with retinoid signalling and cause teratogenicity at environmentally relevant levels with EC50 values at nM (hundreds of ng/L) levels and teratogenic indexes ranging from 2.8 (9cis retinoic acid) to 15.8 (retinal). The relative potency of individual compounds for teratogenicity ranged from 0.059 (retinal) to 0.96 (5,6-epoxy ATRA) when compared to ATRA. An environmentally relevant mixture of retinoids was tested showing good predictability of teratogenicity from the in vitro activities and additive toxicity of the mixture. The high teratogenicity of the newly described compounds associated with cyanobacteria presents a concern for developmental stages due to high conservation of the retinoid signalling across vertebrates.
This study suggests an approach for the comparison and evaluation of particular compartments with modest experimental setup costs. A glucose level prediction model was used to evaluate the compartment's glucose transport rate across the blood capillary membrane and the glucose utilization rate by the cells. The glucose levels of the blood, subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were obtained in experiments conducted on hereditary hypertriglyceridemic rats. After the blood glucose level had undergone a rapid change, the experimenter attempted to reach a steady blood glucose level by manually correcting the glucose infusion rate and maintaining a constant insulin infusion rate. The interstitial fluid glucose levels of subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were evaluated to determine the reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level, the interstitial fluid glucose level predictability, the blood capillary permeability, the effect of the concentration gradient, and the glucose utilization rate. Based on these data, the glucose transport rate across the capillary membrane and the utilization rate in a particular tissue were determined. The rates obtained were successfully verified against positron emission tomography experiments. The subcutaneous tissue exhibits the lowest and the most predictable glucose utilization rate, whereas the skeletal muscle tissue has the greatest glucose utilization rate. In contrast, the visceral fat is the least predictable and has the shortest reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level. The reaction delays obtained for the subcutaneous tissue and skeletal muscle tissue were found to be approximately equal using a metric based on the time required to reach half of the increase in the interstitial fluid glucose level.
- MeSH
- glukosa analýza metabolismus MeSH
- hypertriglyceridemie MeSH
- kapilární permeabilita fyziologie MeSH
- kosterní svaly metabolismus MeSH
- krevní glukóza analýza metabolismus MeSH
- krysa rodu rattus MeSH
- nitrobřišní tuk metabolismus MeSH
- podkožní tuk metabolismus MeSH
- statistické modely MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Check Tag
- krysa rodu rattus MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- zvířata MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
