BACKGROUND: The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic. METHODS: For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere. FINDINGS: Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization.
- MeSH
- dědičné nepolypózní kolorektální nádory * genetika MeSH
- kolorektální nádory * genetika MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. MeSH
INTRODUCTION: Height, body mass index (BMI), and weight gain are associated with breast cancer risk in the general population. It is unclear whether these associations also exist for carriers of pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An international pooled cohort of 8091 BRCA1/2 variant carriers was used for retrospective and prospective analyses separately for premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Cox regression was used to estimate breast cancer risk associations with height, BMI, and weight change. RESULTS: In the retrospective analysis, taller height was associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer for BRCA2 variant carriers (HR 1.20 per 10 cm increase, 95% CI 1.04-1.38). Higher young-adult BMI was associated with lower premenopausal breast cancer risk for both BRCA1 (HR 0.75 per 5 kg/m2, 95% CI 0.66-0.84) and BRCA2 (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.89) variant carriers in the retrospective analysis, with consistent, though not statistically significant, findings from the prospective analysis. In the prospective analysis, higher BMI and adult weight gain were associated with higher postmenopausal breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers (HR 1.20 per 5 kg/m2, 95% CI 1.02-1.42; and HR 1.10 per 5 kg weight gain, 95% CI 1.01-1.19, respectively). CONCLUSION: Anthropometric measures are associated with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant carriers, with relative risk estimates that are generally consistent with those for women from the general population.
- MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- genetická predispozice k nemoci MeSH
- geny BRCA2 * MeSH
- heterozygot MeSH
- hmotnostní přírůstek genetika MeSH
- index tělesné hmotnosti MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- nádory prsu * epidemiologie genetika patologie MeSH
- protein BRCA1 genetika MeSH
- protein BRCA2 genetika MeSH
- retrospektivní studie MeSH
- riziko MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
Aldosterone-producing adenomas (APAs) are the commonest curable cause of hypertension. Most have gain-of-function somatic mutations of ion channels or transporters. Herein we report the discovery, replication and phenotype of mutations in the neuronal cell adhesion gene CADM1. Independent whole exome sequencing of 40 and 81 APAs found intramembranous p.Val380Asp or p.Gly379Asp variants in two patients whose hypertension and periodic primary aldosteronism were cured by adrenalectomy. Replication identified two more APAs with each variant (total, n = 6). The most upregulated gene (10- to 25-fold) in human adrenocortical H295R cells transduced with the mutations (compared to wildtype) was CYP11B2 (aldosterone synthase), and biological rhythms were the most differentially expressed process. CADM1 knockdown or mutation inhibited gap junction (GJ)-permeable dye transfer. GJ blockade by Gap27 increased CYP11B2 similarly to CADM1 mutation. Human adrenal zona glomerulosa (ZG) expression of GJA1 (the main GJ protein) was patchy, and annular GJs (sequelae of GJ communication) were less prominent in CYP11B2-positive micronodules than adjacent ZG. Somatic mutations of CADM1 cause reversible hypertension and reveal a role for GJ communication in suppressing physiological aldosterone production.
- MeSH
- adenom kůry nadledvin * MeSH
- adrenokortikální nádory * MeSH
- aldosteron MeSH
- buněčná adhezní molekula 1 MeSH
- cytochrom P450 CYP11B2 MeSH
- hyperaldosteronismus * MeSH
- hypertenze * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mezerový spoj MeSH
- mutace MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
BACKGROUND: Genomic conditions can be associated with developmental delay, intellectual disability, autism spectrum disorder, and physical and mental health symptoms. They are individually rare and highly variable in presentation, which limits the use of standard clinical guidelines for diagnosis and treatment. A simple screening tool to identify young people with genomic conditions associated with neurodevelopmental disorders (ND-GCs) who could benefit from further support would be of considerable value. We used machine learning approaches to address this question. METHOD: A total of 493 individuals were included: 389 with a ND-GC, mean age = 9.01, 66% male) and 104 siblings without known genomic conditions (controls, mean age = 10.23, 53% male). Primary carers completed assessments of behavioural, neurodevelopmental and psychiatric symptoms and physical health and development. Machine learning techniques (penalised logistic regression, random forests, support vector machines and artificial neural networks) were used to develop classifiers of ND-GC status and identified limited sets of variables that gave the best classification performance. Exploratory graph analysis was used to understand associations within the final variable set. RESULTS: All machine learning methods identified variable sets giving high classification accuracy (AUROC between 0.883 and 0.915). We identified a subset of 30 variables best discriminating between individuals with ND-GCs and controls which formed 5 dimensions: conduct, separation anxiety, situational anxiety, communication and motor development. LIMITATIONS: This study used cross-sectional data from a cohort study which was imbalanced with respect to ND-GC status. Our model requires validation in independent datasets and with longitudinal follow-up data for validation before clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we developed models that identified a compact set of psychiatric and physical health measures that differentiate individuals with a ND-GC from controls and highlight higher-order structure within these measures. This work is a step towards developing a screening instrument to identify young people with ND-GCs who might benefit from further specialist assessment.
- MeSH
- dítě MeSH
- genomika MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mentální retardace * MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- poruchy autistického spektra * MeSH
- průřezové studie MeSH
- strojové učení MeSH
- Check Tag
- dítě MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mladiství MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
Magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography allow the characterization of arterial state and function with high confidence and thus play a key role in the understanding of arterial aging and its translation into the clinic. Decades of research into the development of innovative imaging sequences and image analysis techniques have led to the identification of a large number of potential biomarkers, some bringing improvement in basic science, others in clinical practice. Nonetheless, the complexity of some of these biomarkers and the image analysis techniques required for their computation hamper their widespread use. In this narrative review, current biomarkers related to aging of the aorta, their founding principles, the sequence, and postprocessing required, and their predictive values for cardiovascular events are summarized. For each biomarker a summary of reference values and reproducibility studies and limitations is provided. The present review, developed in the COST Action VascAgeNet, aims to guide clinicians and technical researchers in the critical understanding of the possibilities offered by these advanced imaging modalities for studying the state and function of the aorta, and their possible clinically relevant relationships with aging.
BACKGROUND: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. METHODS: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1-4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models' forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models' past predictive performance. RESULTS: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models' forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models' forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models' forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1-4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. FUNDING: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).
- MeSH
- COVID-19 * diagnóza epidemiologie MeSH
- epidemie * MeSH
- infekční nemoci * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- předpověď MeSH
- retrospektivní studie MeSH
- statistické modely MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. MeSH
BACKGROUND: The Discrimination and Stigma Scale (DISC) is a patient-reported outcome measure which assesses experiences of discrimination among persons with a mental illness globally. METHODS: This study evaluated whether the psychometric properties of a short-form version, DISC-Ultra Short (DISCUS) (11-item), could be replicated in a sample of people with a wide range of mental disorders from 21 sites in 15 countries/territories, across six global regions. The frequency of experienced discrimination was reported. Scaling assumptions (confirmatory factor analysis, inter-item and item-total correlations), reliability (internal consistency) and validity (convergent validity, known groups method) were investigated in each region, and by diagnosis group. RESULTS: 1195 people participated. The most frequently reported experiences of discrimination were being shunned or avoided at work (48.7%) and discrimination in making or keeping friends (47.2%). Confirmatory factor analysis supported a unidimensional model across all six regions and five diagnosis groups. Convergent validity was confirmed in the total sample and within all regions [ Internalised Stigma of Mental Illness (ISMI-10): 0.28-0.67, stopping self: 0.54-0.72, stigma consciousness: -0.32-0.57], as was internal consistency reliability (α = 0.74-0.84). Known groups validity was established in the global sample with levels of experienced discrimination significantly higher for those experiencing higher depression [Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-2: p < 0.001], lower mental wellbeing [Warwick-Edinburgh Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): p < 0.001], higher suicidal ideation [Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS)-4: p < 0.001] and higher risk of suicidal behaviour [Suicidal Ideation Attributes Scale (SIDAS): p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: The DISCUS is a reliable and valid unidimensional measure of experienced discrimination for use in global settings with similar properties to the longer DISC. It offers a brief assessment of experienced discrimination for use in clinical and research settings.
- MeSH
- duševní poruchy * diagnóza MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
- psychometrie MeSH
- reprodukovatelnost výsledků MeSH
- sebevražedné myšlenky MeSH
- společenské stigma MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
Studies of survival in hematological malignancies (HMs) have generally shown an improvement over time, although most of these studies are limited by a short follow-up period. Using the NORDCAN database with data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, we follow periodic increases in relative survival in seven HMs through half a century up to 2015-2019. Five-year survival improved in all seven HMs, reaching 90% for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), myeloproliferative neoplasias and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), 60% for multiple myeloma (MM) and chronic myeloid leukemias (CMLs), 50% for the myelodysplastic syndromes and 30% for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Improvements in survival over 50 years ranged from 20% to more than 50% units across the different HMs. The likely reasons for such progress include earlier diagnoses, improved risk stratification and advances in treatment. We observed differing temporal trends in improvements in survival. The gradual increases observed in HL, CLL and AML highlight the impact of optimization of existing therapies and improvements in diagnostics and risk stratification, whereas the rapid increases observed in the CMLs and MM highlight the impact of novel therapies. Recent therapeutic advances may further improve survival in HMs where survival remains low such as in AML.
- MeSH
- akutní myeloidní leukemie * terapie MeSH
- chronická lymfatická leukemie * MeSH
- hematologické nádory * epidemiologie terapie MeSH
- Hodgkinova nemoc * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mnohočetný myelom * epidemiologie terapie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Skandinávie a severské státy MeSH
Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.
- MeSH
- genetické markery MeSH
- infekce papilomavirem * MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lidské papilomaviry MeSH
- lidský papilomavirus 16 genetika MeSH
- nádory hlavy a krku * MeSH
- nádory orofaryngu * MeSH
- onkogenní proteiny virové * genetika MeSH
- protilátky virové MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- transkripční faktory genetika MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
